The Next Five Days #107

Forecasting percentage growth in Stock Closing Prices from July 11 to July 18, 2025

This week in our basket

The stocks included are: AbbVie Inc. (ABBV), BlackRock, Inc. (BLK), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Chevron Corporation (CVX), Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD), Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG), Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW), Oracle Corporation (ORCL), Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), Stryker Corporation (SYK), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), The Allstate Corporation (ALL), The Coca-Cola Company (KO), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Visa Inc. (V), Zoetis Inc. (ZTS).

🔍 Market Context

The Trump administration escalated its tariff campaign, announcing a formidable 50% duty on Brazilian imports, potential 35% on Canada, and pending 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals and 50% on copper—set to take effect August 1, 2025. While this aggressive posture might sound destabilizing, markets have largely shrugged it off. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs, with Nvidia leading the tech rally, even as bond yields ticked up modestly amid trade-policy jitters. High-yield corporate bond spreads tightened to their lowest level since 2021—a clear sign of investor confidence in economic growth despite tariff-related uncertainties.

Markets displayed an unusual calm in the face of tightening trade tensions and fiscal shifts. Investors seem to believe the worst of tariff threats has been priced in, even as geopolitical ambiguity persists. U.S. bond traders are watching Fed Governor Waller, who argued a July rate cut may be justified even with cooling inflation and robust jobs data—though most Fed colleagues and markets remain skeptical. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed into the high $70s per barrel, supported by OPEC+ cuts and supply concerns, adding another layer of complexity to inflation and earnings forecasts.

📈 Stock Prediction Analysis

For the week of July 11–18, the stock forecast model suggests moderate upside across the board. Most tickers show median (50th percentile) expectations of 0.3% to 0.7% gains. This implies cautious optimism among market participants. That said, certain stocks are drawing notable attention due to their extremely wide forecast ranges, which indicates elevated uncertainty or potential catalysts.

Tesla (TSLA):
Tesla's forecast is a tale of two extremes. The wide range suggests that upcoming delivery and earnings reports (due July 17) could swing sentiment sharply. Barclays recently cautioned that “margin compression remains a near-term drag,” but acknowledged that Tesla’s AI and energy segments are structurally undervalued. Volatility is the main theme here—investors with low risk tolerance should be cautious.

Caterpillar (CAT):
Caterpillar continues to benefit from resilient infrastructure spending and a backlog of industrial orders. Analysts at Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock last week, citing strong demand momentum. With a median forecast of 0.5% and an upper-end projection over 7%, CAT remains a solid industrial play.

Eli Lilly (LLY):
LLY is supported by the continued growth of its GLP-1 weight-loss drug, Zepbound. Analysts forecast 20% year-over-year revenue growth in this segment alone. With strong fundamentals, LLY shows the highest median return in the group (+0.7%), with upside nearing 7.5%.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG):
Backed by stable procedural volume growth and favorable demographics, ISRG remains a top pick in med-tech. JPMorgan maintained an “Overweight” rating, highlighting consistent da Vinci system adoption. Forecasts suggest healthy gains with relatively low downside risk.s & Risks

🚀 Opportunities & ⚠️ Risks

There are clear sector-based opportunities this week. Healthcare names (LLY, ISRG, GILD) are thriving on demographic and product innovation trends. Industrial stocks like CAT are riding the wave of global infrastructure investment. On the risk side, Tesla’s valuation and volatility loom large. Energy names like Chevron (CVX) are exposed to oil market swings, and macro risks like geopolitical disruptions or a surprise inflation spike could spoil the rally.

🎭 Closing Remarks

🤩💰 Captain Cashflow: "Tesla’s revving up—I can feel the voltage! Just one earnings beat and it’s liftoff time, baby! ⚡🚀📈"

🤔📉 Professor Punny McPocket: "Or one delivery miss and it's down faster than a meme stock at closing bell. TSLA’s chart looks more like a polygraph test! 🤨📉📉"

🤩💰 Captain Cashflow: "Don't forget Lilly! It's slimming down waistlines and expanding portfolios! 💊💸💪"

🤔📉 Professor McPocket: "Until a generic bites into those margins. I'm hedging harder than a topiary in Versailles! 🌳✂️📉"

The DelphiDime Team