The Next Five Days #106
Forecasting percentage growth in Stock Closing Prices from July 4 to July 11, 2025
This week in our basket
The stocks included are: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), AbbVie Inc. (ABBV), AT&T Inc. (T), Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL), Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), CVS Health Corporation (CVS), Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD), International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), Linde plc (LIN), Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), RTX Corporation (RTX), The Boeing Company (BA), United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS), Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX), Visa Inc. (V), Walmart Inc. (WMT).
🔍 Market Context
Global equity markets surged, with the S&P 500 up ~1.7% and the Nasdaq rising ~1.6% for the week, contributing to a strong Q2 finish—S&P +10.6%, Nasdaq +17.8%, Dow +5% in June. Trade tensions eased somewhat as the U.S. struck a preliminary tariff deal with Vietnam (20% on Vietnamese goods, while U.S. exports gain exemptions), helping offset earlier jitters. A ceasefire in the Middle East and prospects of U.S. interest-rate stability further boosted sentiment.
U.S. June payrolls surprised to the upside (+147,000 jobs, unemployment fell to 4.1%), reinforcing a strong labor market but dampening hopes for a Fed rate cut this month; markets now anticipate easing only by September. This data pushed bond yields higher and strengthened the dollar, while major indices hit fresh highs: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on July 3, with Nvidia nearing a historic $4 trillion market cap. Meanwhile, escalating U.S.-imposed tariff threats (up to 70%) added some volatility, especially in export-sensitive regions, but upbeat earnings and ongoing AI investment (e.g. Oracle–OpenAI collaboration) helped markets hold firm .
📈 Stock Prediction Analysis
The forecast data shows a modest median growth range for most stocks, with 75th–90th percentile forecasts hinting at short-term upside, while the 10th percentile values reveal significant downside risk, particularly in industrial and aerospace names.
High Potential Upside (90th Percentile)
BA (Boeing): +7.2%
CAT (Caterpillar): +6.9%
ABBV (AbbVie) & VRTX (Vertex Pharma): +6.1%
CVS: +6.0%
Significant Downside Risk (10th Percentile)
BA: –8.1%
CAT: –6.3%
RTX: –5.8%
UPS & ABBV: –5.3%
Neutral-to-Moderate Median Forecasts (50th Percentile)
Most tickers show median forecasts between 0.2% and 0.6%, suggesting a cautiously optimistic baseline.
MSFT and ADP lead at +0.6%, indicating resilience in tech and professional services.
⚖️ Opportunities & Risks
🚀 Growth Opportunities:
AI & Cloud Computing: MSFT, IBM remain strong plays as enterprise tech spending persists.
Healthcare: VRTX, ABBV, and CVS benefit from demand in specialty medicine and pharmacy services.
Infrastructure: CAT could outperform if global capex increases; monitoring emerging markets key.
⚠️ Key Risks:
Industrial Volatility: BA, RTX, and UPS show extreme downside scenarios due to operational delays and high fixed costs.
Monetary Tightness: Elevated yields compress valuations in rate-sensitive sectors (tech, industrials).
Earnings Season Risk: Q2 earnings start next week—expect significant repricing based on forward guidance.
🎭 Closing Remarks
🤩💰 Captain Cashflow: “Did someone say cloud cover? Because MSFT’s forecast is raining gains! 🌧️☁️📈”
🤔📉 Professor Punny McPocket: “More like a fog of uncertainty, dear Captain. One missed guidance and this whole thing crashes like BA. 🛬📉😑”
🤩💰 Captain: “Bah! You’re just mad VRTX is outgrowing your pessimism. These stocks are injecting alpha! 💉📊💸”
🤔📉 Professor: “I prefer stable meds and stable markets. Call me old-fashioned, but I like my portfolio with a side of risk-free returns. 💤📉📜”
The DelphiDime Team